Spring recap No. 21: Padres 6, Mariners 6

Have we heard enough about the contributions of Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Callix Crabbe this spring yet? Well if you haven't, Headley hit a game tying HR, Gerut and Crabbe both drove runs in. I can't imagine these guys not joining Tony Clark and Michael Barrett on the bench when the season starts.

Justin Germano had probably one of his roughest outings of the spring as he gave up 3 ER and 6 hits in 5 IP, but he also struck out 3.

Spring Training Game 21 Preview: Mariners vs. Padres

At Peoria Sports Complex, 7:05 p.m. PT
Starters: Miguel Batista (Sea) vs. Justin Germano (SD)

Germano and company are back from China just as roster moves are being made and Randy Wolf is getting extra time throwing in minor league games on days off. The competition for starting spots is getting fierce and this game could go a long way in deciding who will fill in for Mark Prior while he makes his way back from injury.

Spring recap No. 19: Diamondbacks 8, Padres 4

Shawn Estes had another rough outing, this time giving up 5 ER and 10 hits in 4 2/3 IP while striking out 3. In contrast, Glendon Rusch tried to keep pace with Justin Germano as he pitched 2 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits, walking 1 and striking out 2.

Offensively it was the Callix Crabbe show for SD as Crabbe went 3-for-3 with an RBI. Jody Gerut hit the only SD HR of the game, his 3rd of the spring. It appears the competition for the final bench spots are just as close as the ones for the rotation.

Spring recaps Nos. 16 and 17

So our bitter rivals to the North took us on in an exhibition game in China and how did it turn out? A 3-3 tie. Isn't that supposed to be like kissing your sister? Not that I would know what that's like but after this I might actually have an idea.

But enough rambling, looking at the box a couple of things stand out the biggest being that it looks like Justin Germano should get the opportunity to start while Mark Prior is still on the mend. He continued to be sharp in MLB's China debut, giving up 1 ER, 5 hits and 1 BB in 5 IP while striking out 5. Trevor Hoffman also found it easier to pitch in China, striking out 2 and giving up 1 BB, no hits and no runs in 1 IP.

Stateside, Wade LeBlanc didn't fare too terribly well in his first start, giving up 5 runs (2 earned) and 7 hits in 2 2/3 IP. LeBlanc showed some control as he struck out 5 while walking none but the A's picked up the win 9-3.

Tony Clark continues to have a hot spring as he went 2-for-3 with an RBI (his spring BA is now .429) and Chip Ambres hit his first HR of the spring.

Spring recap No. 11: Rangers 5, Padres 2

Justin Germano and Shawn Estes both pitched in Monday's late game and Germano seemed to answer the performance Randy Wolf had the night before. Germano pitched 4 innings of scoreless ball, giving up only 2 hits in the process.

Estes didn't have such a good performance though, giving up 4 runs (only 1 earned) in 2 2/3 innings. Estes also gave up 3 hits and walked 1 while striking out no one.

Here are the current spring stats for the four guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation:

• Estes: 4 1/3 IP, 20.77 ERA, 11 hits, 4 BB, 1 K
  
• Germano: 9 1/3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 9 hits, 1 BB, 3 K
  
• Glendon Rusch: 3 2/3 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2 hits, 2 BB, 2 K
  
• Wolf: 4 1/3 16.62 ERA, 11 hits, 3 BB 6 K

Again, these are really small samples and not entirely accurate because of the nature and purpose of spring training but even an ERA over 15 has to be a little troubling. I know Chris Young had an astronomical ERA last spring training but still, those high numbers are not pretty to look at.

Offensively, not much stood out other than Jody Gerut was the only hitter to pick up multiple hits (he went 2-for-2).

Spring Training Game 11 Preview: Rangers at Padres

Texas vs. San Diego
at Peoria Sports Complex, 7:05 p.m. PT

Justin Germano tries to improve his shot at getting a starting spot the day after Randy Wolf posted his best outing this spring. Germano will also start the game against the Dodgers in China. Texas counters with Jamey Wright, who starts in place of Kevin Millwood. According to the Rangers website, Millwood will throw a simulated game instead.

Spring recap No. 10: Padres 12, White Sox 3

Rather than the normal game treatment, I decided to look at what Ron Shandler and his 2008 Baseball Forecaster had to say in regards to Chase Headley, who has been having a solid spring.

One of the things Shandler seems to emphasize is the theory of drafting skills when playing fantasy baseball, and not paying for stats that don't tell the whole story. Looking at stats like contact rate (ct%, AB-K/AB), walk rate (bb%, BB/AB+BB) and power index (PX), Headley definitely has a strong skill set that once he adjusts to the majors, he should be a consistent hitter with good power.

What I like most are Shandler's latest projections for Headley (released at the end of Feb.). He estimates Headley will get 323 AB while posting a .273/.371/.463 line while hitting 10 HR, 24 2B and 48 RBI. Not bad for a guy that may not quite have a home with this year's team but may be playing himself into a role.

I know, I am sounding like I am getting too excited over some spring stats but it just seems like Headley is using the spring to put it all together.

On a side note, Randy Wolf had a better outing Sunday, giving up 2 runs in 3 IP. And while he may have given up 5 hits he also struck out 5 without giving up a walk. After Justin Germano starts tomorrow, I will post an updated chart looking at the candidates for the final rotation spots.

Spring recap No. 6: A's 15, Padres 4

So it seems the OF may not be as undermanned as we thought huh? Invitee Jody Gerut is now hitting a robust .455 and it seems most of the guys spending time out there are hitting over. 300 this spring.

Randy Wolf had another rough outing, giving up 4 runs in 2 innings while Shawn Estes and Justin Germano felt the need to keep the competition for those last starting spots close by giving up 3 and 4 runs, respectively. But hey, even Heath Bell had an off day as he gave up 2 runs.

This is a little early and the sample is a little small (even for spring training) but here is the breakdown of the competition for the final starting spots:

Wolf - 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Estes - 1.2 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Germano - 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Glendon Rusch - 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 K

Until Wednesday's game, Germano had not given up a hit or a run. He still has the most innings pitched of the 4 likely candidates and could possibly command a spot in the rotation if he can avoid another game like this.

As this competition continues and more innings are pitched, I will continue to update this chart.

Spring Training Game 6 Preview: Padres at A's

San Diego vs. Oakland
at Phoenix Municipal, 12:05 p.m. PT

It's a backend of the rotation bonanza as Randy Wolf gets his second start of the spring while Justin Germano and Shawn Estes are waiting in the wings to get some innings in. Larry DiNardo is scheduled to start for Oakland.

Spring recap No. 2: Padres 11, Mariners 10

Just so we don't get overhyped about what happens during spring training, I am going to keep these recaps short. This is more just to help me get in a groove for when the regular season comes around.

Highlights from Saturday's game? Chase Headley hit a HR and drove in 4 runs, making a case for getting some serious playing time (or least staying up with the big club) this season. Also, in the race to fill the backend of the rotation, Justin Germano went 2 1/3 and didn't give up a hit or a walk and struck out 2 ...

But that leads us to the downside of yesterday. For the second straight day our "starter" only went 2/3 of an inning - this time Randy Wolf gave up 3 runs in that span. Again he and Estes are coming back from injuries and it is only the first couple games of spring training but still, trends make me nervous. Let's just hope this is one of those times I am nervous because I have nothing better to do.

Spring Training Game 2 Preview: Mariners at Padres

Seattle vs. San Diego
Peoria Sports Complex, 12:05 p.m. PT

The back end of the rotation continues its parade to kick of spring training with projected No. 4 starter Randy Wolf scheduled to pitch the first inning with No. 5 starter hopeful Justin Germano slated to throw the next two. Seattle will counter with Felix Hernandez.

It's spring and it's baseball, what more could you want?

2008 Previews: Starting Pitching

It's no secret by now that the Padres have one of the best, if not the best, 1-2 combos in the majors when it comes to starters. Jake Peavy and Chris Young got off to an amazing start and if it wasn't for a pesky injury after the All Star break, Young may have been a stronger Cy Young candidate.

With Greg Maddux coming back we have a solid enough No. 3 starter that he should guarantee us at least 10 wins once again, despite the fact that Maddux is clearly not the pitcher he was. However, his years of experience have made it possible for him to remain effective.

Any fan worth his weight knows the biggest question for the Padres is who will fill the last two spots in the rotation. Low budget signings Randy Wolf and Mark Prior should be adequate to fill the roles if they can remain healthy, but that's the $64,000 question this season.

Both Wolf and Prior tend to be fly ball pitchers and their home run to fly ball ratios should see the most improvement because of their new surroundings. Should the need arise, both Justin Germano (last year's No. 5 starter) and Clay Hensley headline a list of youngsters who will be itching for another chance to earn a full-time rotation gig.

It remains to be seen how effective Germano really can be - is he more of the pitcher we saw in the first half (only 1 loss), or is he closer to the guy we saw struggle in the second half? A similar questions could be asked of Hensley, but he too is also trying to battle back from injury.

Regardless of who fills the last two spots, someone is going to have to step up in a big way.

2007 recaps: Starting pitching

Alright, so it's been almost another week between posts so I guess it's time to get to my thoughts on the starting pitching in 2007.

What started out as one of the team's strongest parts became somewhat of a problem as things wore on. If Jake Peavy doesn't win the Cy Young, it will be a tragedy as he was clearly the best NL pitcher this year. Not only was he the only starting pitcher in the majors with an ERA under 3.00 ( he finished with 2.54), he also led the NL in wins and strikeouts - the pitcher's triple crown. But behind him was one roller coaster of a staff.

Competing with Peavy for the Cy Young through the All Star break was teammate Chris Young, however he tailed off after an oblique injury early in the second half of the season. Once the injury hit, you never knew how good Young would be for how long and it showed in his stats. On July 24, Young was 9-3. Then after the injury he went 0-5 (to finish with a 9-8 record) and the Pads went 2-8 during that span.

Greg Maddux had a similar situation happen to him where he had five consecutive losses but he followed that up with five wins in his next six starts and finished with a 14-11 record. Maddux clearly wasn't the Maddux of old and for a long time it seemed that he needed to be pulled by either the sixth inning or 65 pitches, whichever came first. But he picked it up in the second half and threw less than 65 pitches only once.

After Maddux the rotation was a complete mess. Clay Hensley battled early season injuries and was never able get going once he was healthy. David Wells was like Maddux but compounded, needing to be pulled by around 50 pitches before he imploded. He was so ineffective that he was eventually released. And while Justin Germano came up huge at the start of the season he eventually wore down and was no better or worse than any of the other pitchers the Pads were trying to get quality starts out of every now and then.

All of this inconsistency eventually wore down the pen and contributed to SD missing the playoffs, but that is more of a discussion for the breakdown of the pen. With Peavy and Young back healthy, the top spots of the rotation are obviously taken care of but after that its anyone's guess as to who will fill out the spots in '08. Maddux has a player option and would again be a good back-of-the-rotation guy, but it is obvious the Nos. 4 and 5 spots will need to be addressed.

Hensley is probably not an option and Germano may be better suited for long relief. And from what the guys the Pads were trying out at the end of the season, none of them really seized the opportunity provided to them in a time of need. There is clearly some need here, no matter how strong it was thought to be at the beginning of 2007.

The pack has finally caught up

Wow, it's time to get off this runaway train before it hits a burning building.

What seemed like an almost sure thing in July and even August has become a possibility as the Pads are no longer solely on top in the NL wild card race. What happened to this team that was at one point a trendy pick by writers to be in the World Series? Is there one moment this season that set the stage for the collapse that has taken place since?

Despite the late struggles of the rotation, the Pads are still the best in the NL in terms of pitching. They are the only team with a collective ERA under 4.00 (3.63) and have compiled 20 shut outs this season. Offensively SD is towards the bottom of the league but runs have been coming a lot easier lately - and so are the losses.

The talent on this team now, I feel, is a lot better than what we started the season off with but it doesn't seem to have made a huge impact. Did Chris Young's injury really affect the race that much? I don't want to say our season has come down to one player's oblique but things haven't been the same, with Young or the team, since that injury occurred.

Kevin Towers released David Wells because he was too taxing on the pen but look at what's happened since then. Not only have the Pads been able to find a successful No. 5 starter but Justin Germano has been ineffective too. It makes me feel like if Boomer was still here at least we wouldn't be worried about two starters making it to the second. We could be comfortable until the fourth.

But the struggles are related to more than just the pitching staff. I would say Milton Bradley's constant health battles have also kept the team inconsistent. I still think this was a great pickup (yes, even after he blew up and Bud Black had to put on a WWE clinic to restrain him, injuring him in the process) but if he could have stayed on the field the Pads may still have a small cushion in the wild card. But again, one injury does not a team's struggles make.

SD seemed to make it through two month's of Adrian Gonzalez struggling but what about the fact that Josh Bard, Marcus Giles, Michael Barrett and a third outfielder have not been every day players like we need. I'm not bagging on Bard, he has played far better than I think we've expected, but Barrett was brought in so we wouldn't have to use Bard every day and Giles can't keep Geoff Blum off the field.

Looking at this club, it seems that injuries and season-long slumps - along with stellar play by a young Arizona club that wasn't supposed to contend this year - have finally caught up to the Padres and unless some real playoff magic happens, they could be at home in October for the first time since 2004.

I'm not one to loose faith in my team but right now it's hard to fight the urge to say 2007 was fun while it lasted, let's hope 2008 is finally the year. So instead let's start praying for a playoff miracle.

You definitely need a scorecard to tell these guys apart

I spent today's off day transferring files from my old computer to my new one and while doing so I came across the San Diego Union-Tribune's "Meet your 2007 Padres" page and realized that this team is nothing like it was back in April.

Of the 25 players on the opening day roster, seven players are currently not on the roster (two have spent most of the season in the minors but are on the 40-man roster), one has shuttled back and forth all season between the minors and the Padres and two of the starters have lost their jobs.

As fans we all applaud the job Kevin Towers has done as the season goes along, but looking at these changes wholesale, the job he has done seems even better. Replacing guys like Jose Cruz Jr., Rob Bowen, Russell Branyan, David Wells and Scott Linebrink with Milton Bradley, Michael Barrett, Morgan Ensburg, Rob Mackowiak and Justin Germano may not sound like much (and we may be missing Wells as we search for a No. 5 starter) but these moves have kept the Padres within striking distances while the Diamondbacks seem to be having a "team of destiny" type season playing well beyond their talent. Personally I would much rather be battling for the division title to the wire than sitting here trying to determine what happened to the promising season the Padres appeared to be having at the end of May.

No matter how much we want it to happen, not every move made by Towers will work out in our favor but with his track record, chances are the moves will work out more often than not. The same goes for wins - the Pads may not win them all but they need to be winning more games than they lose at this point. And if that happens, we should be enjoying another postseason.

The old college try

I hand it to Jake Peavy for trying to help out the team by starting on short rest and keep the Padres in first in the division.

It's just too bad he had his worst outing of the season while trying to be the hero. I didn't see the game live but it looked on Gameday Live that Peavy had some location issues. It looked for a while that he might have been ok with the Padres up 5-3 going into the fifth inning but then he and Doug Brocail surrendered the lead and SD lost ground.

Obviously this loss isn't the end of the season but it sure stings. The offense should stay hot with a trip to Colorado up next but it seems what the Pads really need now is for its starters to get hot. Justin Germano is next up while the Rockies throw out Elmer Dessens and his 8.10 ERA.

These next few weeks are key (as if it wasn't obvious) and right now the Pads need as many wins as they can get. Hopefully the rotation will hold together long enough to get to the postseason.

100 down, hopefully many more to go

It's amazing to think that I have hit the 100 post mark here at FriarBall, and it couldn't have come at a better time.

For those of you who missed Tuesday's game, Justin Germano may not have been the best pitcher out on the mound but he was good enough to give the Padres a 2nd straight victory over Arizona despite the fact he went against D-backs ace and Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb.

The offense seems to be coming around now that SD has cut AZ's division lead to 1 game and if these guys can play similarly to how they did at the beginning of the season then the Pads should be a feared opponent as the playoffs approach.

The series is what baseball and the run to the playoffs is all about - this series may not decide the NL West champs but it will go a VERY long way in determining the final outcome of the division.

It's good to hear that Chris Young (ours, not there's) will start Thursday to close out the series and Greg Maddux has been decent enough lately to give fans the hope of a sweep. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, we know what happens when we start thinking too positively.

Tough night for closers

Obviously most of the focus on Friday night's win is on the fact that Trevor Hoffman blew his first save since April but he wasn't the only closer in the game - or in the league for that matter - that had trouble closing out a game last night. I didn't realize Friday the 10th was just as unlucky as Friday the 13th.

Of course in Cincinnati the lack what we have - stable relief pitching. And even though Hoffman gave up the save, it seemed obvious that the longer the game went the more likely a Reds reliever would blow the game. Who knew that reliever would be David Weathers, the only guy the Reds have been able to count on this year?

SD sends former Red Justin Germano to the mound to face Bobby Livingston, whose 4.46 ERA entering the game is lowest an opposing pitcher has had in a week. Hopefully some more runs are on the way.

With August here, still some tinkering left to do

The Padres are in the home stretch, in second place in the NL West and while we would like to think that SD has to be one of the favorites to win NL, there are still a couple of things that need to be corrected for a postseason run.

The David Wells horse has been beat to death and it seems there is a possibility he could be released. The only problem is, Greg Maddux has no stamina and can't get past the sixth, Justin Germano has been struggling after a hot start and Clay Hensley never got things together after suffering through some early season injuries. And with Chris Young still hurting, there is not much starting pitching to rely on at this point. It also appears that any future starters that are laboring in the minors are not quite ready to make the jump up to the majors (Tim Stauffer anyone).

I think one thing we thought the Padres had an abundance of this year was pitching but it seems like the starters have hit a wall, and with Bud Black still trying to find a consistent starting lineup it seems like the wheels could be coming off this thing in a hurry.

The Padres seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place right now with Wells struggling so much but if a couple of guys could get hot as the season winds down, they may be able to get things going in the right direction and have enough momentum entering the playoffs that a deep postseason run may still be possible, even if the offense still doesn't come around completely.

Hopefully a solution will present itself soon but if it doesn't, I fear the Padres will be at home watching the playoffs like the rest of us.

Second half run and the trade deadline

We all should feel good about the fact that the Padres are in first place heading into the second half of the season but I think the one thing that is making me feel even better is what SD did right before the break in terms of the lineup.

With the July 31 trade deadline approaching and a number of teams still in contention, it seems that there may not be a lot of players available for teams looking to add to their lineup. However, SD struck early and while the team is saying it is still looking to make some moves, the Padres won't be as desperate as other teams will be at the deadline, which should prevent Kevin Towers from making a trade out of desperation and giving up too much to try and help the team.

Now don't read that last line as saying Towers makes bad trades, but we all know what happens when the clock winds down an opportunity, sometimes there is a strong urge to impulse buy. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't make a move either.

Because we have such a strong pen and more starters than we have spots in the rotation, Towers should loosen his Vulcan death grip on at least one of them for a good hitter (notice I didn't say power hitter). Scott Linebrink's name has been thrown around an awful lot and usually is around this time but what about other options? Kevin Cameron, Justin Hampson or even Justin Germano could be decent chips because of what they have done so far this year but I think that if Towers is willing to part with anyone, he should consider Doug Brocail. As a veteran lefty, this is the time of the year guys like Brocail make famous and since he had a solid appearance after getting back from the DL, this would be the perfect time to get top value for him. Someone else may need to be included in a deal to get a top bat but that is completely doable.

Now some may ask what I have against Brocail since I have mentioned a few times that he should be gone but just look at his splits this year when it comes to home and road games (5.40/1.61). Any pitcher who can't succeed in Petco needs to go. Alright, enough ranting about Brocail.

Anyways, enjoy the kickoff to the second half of the season as SD opens with NL West rival Arizona. Greg Maddux will get the boys going but let's make sure someone is on pitch watch this time. Maybe we can ask the ump for Little League rules in this game, so we are forced to pull Maddux after he reaches his limit.