FriarBall: NL West
Showing posts with label NL West. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NL West. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Early predictions for the NL West

First things first: I apologize this did not get up on Monday as promised. As most of you probably know, life has a funny way of shifting priorities. But enough excuses.

As Jan. winds down, it's time for anyone and everyone to start making predictions. So starting today, here are my breakdowns of the NL West and the Padres. Today's prediction is the order in which the teams will finish in the division with a short reason why. (Disclaimer: Since it is Jan., I reserve the right to change my predictions based on potential injuries during Spring Training. You didn't seriously think I would allow myself to be held completely to these did you?)

1. Diamondbacks: It would be easy to go with the homer pick here but AZ really surprised everyone last year, especially those who said '08 would be their year. Well, it's now '08 and they have added Dan Haren to the rotation. This team will be tough to beat again and probably has the best shot at winning the division.

2. Padres: You didn't think I'd pick them to finish any lower did you? In midseason they were the best team in the NL but they faded fast and eventually lost game 163 to Colorado. Mark Prior and Randy Wolf are interesting additions to the rotation and along with Jim Edmonds and Tadahito Iguchi this team has made some changes in hopes of playing a little longer in '08. These moves should work.

3. Rockies: They needed to win 21 of their last 22 to make the playoffs and then swept through the NL before being swept out by the Red Sox. Kip Wells is not the answer to replace the "Dragon Slayer" Josh Fogg though and no one will be caught off guard this time. However, Matt Holliday is really good, even if he never touched the plate.

4. Dodgers: Call this a hater pick if you want but Joe Torre does not equal playoffs for the boys in blue. This team still has a lot of work to do and will need more than one year for Torre to work his magic.

5. Giants: This organization is currently a mess and we will definitely need a scorecard to tell who the players are, but they are finally escaping the loooooong shadow of Barry Bonds. But they are still a couple of years away from actually turning this thing around and they should safely be entrenched in the basement by the end of April.

There you have it. Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Did the NL West just get tougher?

It's finally official, Joe Torre is now in charge of the underachieving Dodgers. And naturally all sorts of Padres followers are asking how this hire affects the NL West as a whole.

Like I have said before, Torre is a good manager but I question how well he fits with LA. But I am not going to get into that discussion again. What I want to talk about is how hard the NL West could be in 2008 if this move pays off for the Dodgers.

SD ended 2007 by falling 1 game short of the playoffs, losing out to eventual NL champ Colorado in a wild card playoff. Arizona played well above expectations and a streaking Colorado bumped us out of the mix. If things were to remain the same for AZ and Colorado, along with an LA team helmed by Torre playing well, more than one team in the division will be guaranteed an early start on the offseason again.

If Torre gets the Dodgers to live up to their potential, the NL West should clearly become the toughest division in baseball, despite the fact that SF will most likely be terrible again.

While I am not a proponent of throwing money around hoping a championship can be bought (I have watched my Washington Redskins try that approach year after year with no success), I do think this hire requires some smart moves this offseason, something Kevin Towers always seems to be ready for. The obvious areas are the backend of the rotation and the outfield, but even a strong middle reliever could be good enough.

Again, I am not proposing wholesale changes and a shopping spree, but some noise needs to be made. A lot is being made about getting a top name center fielder but even re-signing left fielder Milton Bradley is a great start. But with a thin - and overpriced - market for the other outfield positions, this could be the Padres biggest challenge. Somehow I think Towers pulls this off given what happened at the end of the year and don't be surprised if help once again comes in the form of a trade.

As the stove warms up there will be plenty more rumors to discuss and available players to drool over but for now the consensus is this - no one in the NL West is safe after last year and something obvious has to be done to improve. If it doesn't happen, the Pads will once again be on the outside of the playoffs.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Quick news and notes

Now that the Red Sox have officially ended the 2007 season, it's time to start looking at 2008 and doing what any good fan does, play Armchair GM through the winter. Already there are two things of note for Padres fans that I would like to weigh in on.

1. Joe Torre to the Dodgers? In their usual way, LA is going for the big move in hopes that it will fix its dysfunction and get the team to the playoffs. I've got nothing against Torre as a manager, but I just don't see him as the difference maker the Dodgers need.

Now this is not to bag on a guy with 4 World Series rings, but I think the bigger concern LA has is getting rid of a ton of oft-injured, aging and under achieving talent - something very few if any managers can make work. Luckily for Padres fans, the longer the Dodgers neglect their real issues, the better the shot SD has at staying towards the top of the NL West.

2. I'm sure most of you have heard - and read the subsequent comments - about Mike Cameron's 25 game suspension. Granted Cameron is not on the '08 roster but there are a couple of interesting opinions being bantered about.

Jbox over at Gaslamp Ball feels that even though he didn't want Cameron back before, this situation may present a discount opportunity.

Obviously the CF situation is one to be followed closely throughout the winter but here is my first take on the situation - while I think Cameron did a good job defensively in CF the past couple seasons, and had some good offensive hot streaks, I want to see what someone else can bring to the table.

The big names being thrown around are Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter but they both hinge upon price. I think Hunter is the more intriguing option here as both his offense and defense would not only be upgrades, but his defense would provide a constant spotlight as it will be regularly featured on highlight reels. For a club always worried about return investments, the extra national media exposure could only help right? Again, this is something to be watching all offseason and as more players file for free agency, it will be fun to see who the Padres add to punch things up.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

The race is not over yet

Just when you think "settling" for a wild card spot was the best the Pads could do, a two-game win streak over San Fran (thanks in part to a big home run by Brian Giles) has us back to within one of the NL West lead.

Now I know that the lead is still really two games because AZ holds the tie breaker, but apparently these guys still want to win after all, even if we will have no OFs to play once we get to the playoffs. Does anyone else think its weird we picked up Jason Lane to play for us for a week this season?

This is what makes baseball exciting this time of year and it will be great to see how all of this plays out. So remain on the edge of your seat and keep sending your good vibes towards the Friars. They're going to need it.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

The pack has finally caught up

Wow, it's time to get off this runaway train before it hits a burning building.

What seemed like an almost sure thing in July and even August has become a possibility as the Pads are no longer solely on top in the NL wild card race. What happened to this team that was at one point a trendy pick by writers to be in the World Series? Is there one moment this season that set the stage for the collapse that has taken place since?

Despite the late struggles of the rotation, the Pads are still the best in the NL in terms of pitching. They are the only team with a collective ERA under 4.00 (3.63) and have compiled 20 shut outs this season. Offensively SD is towards the bottom of the league but runs have been coming a lot easier lately - and so are the losses.

The talent on this team now, I feel, is a lot better than what we started the season off with but it doesn't seem to have made a huge impact. Did Chris Young's injury really affect the race that much? I don't want to say our season has come down to one player's oblique but things haven't been the same, with Young or the team, since that injury occurred.

Kevin Towers released David Wells because he was too taxing on the pen but look at what's happened since then. Not only have the Pads been able to find a successful No. 5 starter but Justin Germano has been ineffective too. It makes me feel like if Boomer was still here at least we wouldn't be worried about two starters making it to the second. We could be comfortable until the fourth.

But the struggles are related to more than just the pitching staff. I would say Milton Bradley's constant health battles have also kept the team inconsistent. I still think this was a great pickup (yes, even after he blew up and Bud Black had to put on a WWE clinic to restrain him, injuring him in the process) but if he could have stayed on the field the Pads may still have a small cushion in the wild card. But again, one injury does not a team's struggles make.

SD seemed to make it through two month's of Adrian Gonzalez struggling but what about the fact that Josh Bard, Marcus Giles, Michael Barrett and a third outfielder have not been every day players like we need. I'm not bagging on Bard, he has played far better than I think we've expected, but Barrett was brought in so we wouldn't have to use Bard every day and Giles can't keep Geoff Blum off the field.

Looking at this club, it seems that injuries and season-long slumps - along with stellar play by a young Arizona club that wasn't supposed to contend this year - have finally caught up to the Padres and unless some real playoff magic happens, they could be at home in October for the first time since 2004.

I'm not one to loose faith in my team but right now it's hard to fight the urge to say 2007 was fun while it lasted, let's hope 2008 is finally the year. So instead let's start praying for a playoff miracle.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Winning clutch games

Between watching the chases for the various division pennants and with the start of football season, it has occurred to me - and maybe that's just because I'm slow - that there are certain franchises that just win clutch games.

The most obvious example of this for me is an NFL one (sorry guys), the New England Patriots (sorry again). It doesn't seem to matter what hype is surrounding what upstart team, the Pats just seem to get the job done and are a constant contender for the Super Bowl.

The best examples of this in baseball come from the AL East (here's the third apology) and you guys know who they are. But what about in the NL? It seems there has been a changing of the guard of some sort in the NL with no team really establishing itself like Atlanta had done for about 14 years.

All three division leaders are struggling towards the postseason and the biggest opening is for the Pads, only a 1/2 game behind Arizona. We've been a playoff team a few times the last decade but now is the time for the Padres. With 10 games left it's time to see how clutch this group is and if they can put it all together, they could establish themselves as the team to beat in the NL in 2008 and beyond.

Obviously looking that far ahead is a little far reaching at this point but this organization seems to be on the verge of doing something special and my only plea is for these guys to focus the rest of the way. When these guys are on they can beat the best teams in the league but they have struggled against teams like tonight's opponent Colorado.

This is the point of the season where legendary tales begin and SD is in the position to write a true epic. It all comes down to how bad these guys want it and how well they are willing to play for it. If I am Arizona I am peeing my pants right now because the Pads are in the best spot they can be in. I smell the playoffs and a division title.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

How the West is being won

It's been a week since my last post and the first thing I wanted to say is that I am still here. As I have been scurrying through the week trying to get things done for my real job, I have been reflecting on my blogging journey so far this year.

When I started blogging I wanted to try and post at least once a day and while I have had stretches where I have posted day after day, I have also gone a couple of days between posts too. It's amazing how simple something as writing a couple of sentences every day about the Padres can seem until you actually sit down to do it. It just makes me admire the guys who actually post multiple times a day even more.

I have had other struggles along the way too and as I sit and think about this I can't help but think about how similar my path has been to the Padres. There have been ups-and-downs for both of us all year and hopefully when the end of the regular season comes, we will both be preparing for the postseason.

Speaking of the Pads, once again they are closing in on the NL West title. Just when you think we have to settle for the wild card the Padres sweep the Giants and get right back into things.

At this moment the Padres are trying to close out a second straight win against the Pirates and it doesn't help but remind me of how the Pads have been playing lately. When they face the best competition, they play at the top of their game but when they get the "easy" games, they seem to fall flat on their faces. They have done better in September, but with only a handful of games left, you have to beat the teams you are supposed to beat.

This is the time of year when we see the true character of a team and depending on how the Padres make the playoffs should tell us a lot about what to expect when they get there.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Rocked in Colorado

It's a good thing the Friars had an off day because their performance in Colorado is not what you want to see out of a team fighting for the playoffs. And if it wasn't for Greg Maddux the Pads would really be hurting.

If these guys expect to make it further than the first round in the playoffs (or even make the playoffs at the rate they are going), they need to win games, especially against teams that are trying to get ahead of them in the Wild Card race. It's hard to believe that earlier in the week a NL West title was still a possibility. Now I am just hoping we aren't witnessing a monumental collapse. It's hard to believe that it was only June when SD had the best record in baseball.

We should be relieved that Jake Peavy will take the hill to open a 3-game set in LA (especially since he is pitching on normal rest), but with the way this season has been going, nothing surprises me anymore. This LA series is just as important as the last two (Arizona and Colorado) so let's hope our boys don't choke.

If you squint hard enough, the playoffs are still in sight.

Friday, September 7, 2007

You definitely need a scorecard to tell these guys apart

I spent today's off day transferring files from my old computer to my new one and while doing so I came across the San Diego Union-Tribune's "Meet your 2007 Padres" page and realized that this team is nothing like it was back in April.

Of the 25 players on the opening day roster, seven players are currently not on the roster (two have spent most of the season in the minors but are on the 40-man roster), one has shuttled back and forth all season between the minors and the Padres and two of the starters have lost their jobs.

As fans we all applaud the job Kevin Towers has done as the season goes along, but looking at these changes wholesale, the job he has done seems even better. Replacing guys like Jose Cruz Jr., Rob Bowen, Russell Branyan, David Wells and Scott Linebrink with Milton Bradley, Michael Barrett, Morgan Ensburg, Rob Mackowiak and Justin Germano may not sound like much (and we may be missing Wells as we search for a No. 5 starter) but these moves have kept the Padres within striking distances while the Diamondbacks seem to be having a "team of destiny" type season playing well beyond their talent. Personally I would much rather be battling for the division title to the wire than sitting here trying to determine what happened to the promising season the Padres appeared to be having at the end of May.

No matter how much we want it to happen, not every move made by Towers will work out in our favor but with his track record, chances are the moves will work out more often than not. The same goes for wins - the Pads may not win them all but they need to be winning more games than they lose at this point. And if that happens, we should be enjoying another postseason.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

The old college try

I hand it to Jake Peavy for trying to help out the team by starting on short rest and keep the Padres in first in the division.

It's just too bad he had his worst outing of the season while trying to be the hero. I didn't see the game live but it looked on Gameday Live that Peavy had some location issues. It looked for a while that he might have been ok with the Padres up 5-3 going into the fifth inning but then he and Doug Brocail surrendered the lead and SD lost ground.

Obviously this loss isn't the end of the season but it sure stings. The offense should stay hot with a trip to Colorado up next but it seems what the Pads really need now is for its starters to get hot. Justin Germano is next up while the Rockies throw out Elmer Dessens and his 8.10 ERA.

These next few weeks are key (as if it wasn't obvious) and right now the Pads need as many wins as they can get. Hopefully the rotation will hold together long enough to get to the postseason.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Looking for any degree of seperation

It's time for that roller coaster feeling again. After a great Monday in which SD took a lead on Arizona, the Diamondbacks tied things right back up on Tuesday, their offense the one that exploded for 9 runs.

Wednesday's game is the last meeting between the two teams for the rest of the season and it's a good things too as I am tired of seeing these guys make mediocre Doug Davis look like Roger Clemens.

The most interesting part about the Pads lately is that it seems the team's biggest strength is now a concern. I would never have imagined that the losses of David Wells and Scott Linebrink would punch so many holes in the pitching staff but apparently Kevin Towers is looking for solutions in the form of callups and retreads like Brett Tomko. Tomko actually has Davis-like numbers for his career with a record of 91-91 and a 4.62 ERA.

Regardless of the outcome, the NL West will be fun to watch down the stretch and hopefully Lady Luck will shine on the Friars.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Padres take another from D-backs, Maddux on way to 400 wins?

Winning 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and picking up another win from Arizona is just how I want to see this team head into the playoffs.

All of the worrying we did in July seems to be going away now and despite the fact we have no permanent fixture in the No. 5 starter hole doesn't seem to be stopping the Pads, who have finally woken up this season offensively. Did they really hit 5 home runs against the Diamondbacks Monday? And where did Brian Giles get all that power from? I thought his power hitting days were over.

Even though we got another great performance from Greg Maddux, I saw this article on the Padres official Web site and thought it was a tad premature. I mean, does picking up win No. 344 at age 41 really warrant a story on going for 400 wins?

I would love to see Maddux hit this milestone but with the way he has tired around the sixth inning in about half of his starts this season, I think it is unrealistic to think Maddux will pitch more than two more years, picking up 56 wins in the process.

As a working member of the media, I am embarrassed when stuff like this happens but I guess it always seems to happen. At this point in the season, whether Maddux will make it to 400 wins is irrelevant, but his pitching of late has been anything but.

Let's hope this battle for the NL West continues to go well and that the Padres can keep picking up these key wins. And if Maddux - or anyone else - reaches a milestone in the process, that will make these wins that much more exciting.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

There's something familiar about this spot

Great news Padres fans - in case you have completely hidden yourself from the outside overnight, you probably already know that SD has regained first place in the NL West with a 3rd straight win over Arizona last night.

And with the worst thing that can happen tonight being the Padres and Diamondbacks could end up tied atop the division standings, I would say this home stand has been successful so far. Chris Young takes the mound tonight and the only thing I hope for besides a sweep is that CY can get through the outing without any pain and without his next start date in doubt.

There is still a month left in the season and SD by no means has this thing in the bag but it is nice to know that despite some of the recent struggles - and all of the struggles throughout the year - this team is still tough to beat and hasn't imploded.

As a side note, if you haven't heard enough gushing about Milton Bradley, here is a tiny bit more - this guy is a stud and Kevin Towers would be foolish not to bring him back in 2008. For all of the naysayers who think this guy destroys clubhouses, all he has done is brought to life a pretty pathetic offense and given this team enough of a boost that it can now feel secure with more than just its pitching. Thanks Billy Beane for "unloading" your problem on us.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

With August here, still some tinkering left to do

The Padres are in the home stretch, in second place in the NL West and while we would like to think that SD has to be one of the favorites to win NL, there are still a couple of things that need to be corrected for a postseason run.

The David Wells horse has been beat to death and it seems there is a possibility he could be released. The only problem is, Greg Maddux has no stamina and can't get past the sixth, Justin Germano has been struggling after a hot start and Clay Hensley never got things together after suffering through some early season injuries. And with Chris Young still hurting, there is not much starting pitching to rely on at this point. It also appears that any future starters that are laboring in the minors are not quite ready to make the jump up to the majors (Tim Stauffer anyone).

I think one thing we thought the Padres had an abundance of this year was pitching but it seems like the starters have hit a wall, and with Bud Black still trying to find a consistent starting lineup it seems like the wheels could be coming off this thing in a hurry.

The Padres seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place right now with Wells struggling so much but if a couple of guys could get hot as the season winds down, they may be able to get things going in the right direction and have enough momentum entering the playoffs that a deep postseason run may still be possible, even if the offense still doesn't come around completely.

Hopefully a solution will present itself soon but if it doesn't, I fear the Padres will be at home watching the playoffs like the rest of us.

Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Lots of changes lately

Sorry for the long delay between posts, the fourth has screwed up my schedule at work and has left me little time to write this weekend. But as I have pondered about what to write, I thought it might be time to finally define the identity of this blog.

I originally started this blog as a way to post my opinion on the news and happenings with the Padres but quickly detoured into other things like game-by-game analysis. So I am going to stop and go back to what I want to do. I still want to try and post everyday (of course as my schedule allows), but instead of focusing on the specifics of individual games, I want to talk about what the franchise is doing, what it is accomplishing and where it is going. So without further blabbing from my end, here is my take on a couple of the recent happpenings.

SD trades for Bradley

While I am more of a Parker Brothers guy myself (ok, stupid game joke out of the way), Milton Bradley appears to be just the type of guy that can really fill a hole. Granted, he doesn't have the cleanest track record but it appears SD is willing to take a chance, even without a physical. Along with Michael Barrett, many comments are being made about what these two new acquisitions will do to the team's chemistry. I think both guys have plenty of motive to behave and I don't think either will be a problem, no matter how closely both will be watched.

Series win over Dodgers

This series and the one with Arizona are going to be the toughest series' the rest of the season but I have a feeling the Dodgers won't be able to compete with the Padres. The Dodgers won two series' in April but since then, the Padres are 5-1 against our neighbors from the North. Our pitching should carry us to a division title and into the playoffs but if the Padres don't find more offense, they will struggle to get past the first round.

All-Star pitching

With the release of the All-Star rosters, it is no surprise that the Padres have two - and potentially three - pitchers on this year's squad. Jake Peavy and Trevor Hoffman are having the best year's of any starting pitchers and closers in the National League, and "last chance" nominee Chris Young should have been included in the first place considering the fact that Brad Penny and Peavy are the only two NL pitchers on a better roll right now. While the whole "last chance" vote and All-Star are jokes in general, it's cool to see our guys getting the recognition they deserve.

Monday, June 11, 2007

Swept away

How do the Padres go from sweeping the Dodgers earlier in the week to being swept by Seattle? That should not happen, especially when two of the guys San Diego threw had ERAs under 3.00 while all three of Seattle's pitchers were over 5.00.

Steadying influences Jake Peavy and Chris Young failed to pick up wins this weekend and San Diego lost three straight one run games, a very disturbing trend. When you don't have much offense, these are the types of games that need to be won.

Luckily for the Padres both Arizona and Los Angeles struggled this weekend as well and they are still tied atop the NL West with the Diamondbacks.

Interleague nonsense continues this week as the Padres travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Devil Rays. Hopefully Greg Maddux can get the team back on track Tuesday, even though Tampa Bay is throwing out one of the most promising pitching prospects in Scott Kazmir. And even though the Rays are still pretty bad, as the series with the Mariners showed, the Padres are no lock to take any series.

Friday, June 8, 2007

Walk off walk

You've got to love winning a game on a walk off walk, especially when it seemed that the Padres had blown the sweep. Five runs in the bottom of the ninth is unheard of and what makes this win even better is that is finished off a sweep of the Dodgers.

Jake Peavy got rocked - by his standards - and things seemed to have gotten away from our boys but behold the power of a bottom of the ninth rally. It was even better to get it against LA's interim closer, Jonathan Broxton, whom many feel should take over for Takashi Saito.

These three wins should give us a little bit of breathing room at least with the Dodgers, now we have to focus on keeping up the pace with Arizona, as they have matched San Diego's every win of late. This NL West race is going to come down to the wire and every game is going to count. Next up, the fiercest rivalry in baseball. Yup, you read that right, the Mariners are coming to town.

Justin Germano looks to improve to 5-0 and keep his ERA under 2.00 while his counterpart, Miguel Batista, struggles to prove he actually belongs in the bigs.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

One for the record books

In case you have been under a rock or nowhere within the distance of a TV with ESPN, Trevor Hoffman finally got save No. 500 last night.

What was more impressive to me though was what happened before Hoffman's bells rang. I was amazed to see how efficient Greg Maddux was, even though he left in a jam in the seventh inning, throwing only 71 pitches. And even though he left in the seventh with one out, Luis Gonzalez on base and a home run having been given up to Jeff Kent, Heath Bell was even more efficient than Maddux, throwing two pitches and getting Russell Martin to ground into a double play. The rest was gravy, even though Hoffman gave us our usual heart attack by letting Nomar Garciaparra double to lead off the inning.

What has me even more stoked than Wednesday's win, though, is the fact that Jake Peavy is on the mound tonight for the rubber match and the series sweep. San Diego was tied with the Dodgers heading into the series, now let's see if they can get some more distance from them in the NL West race.

Friday, June 1, 2007

Welcome to Washington

I'm stoked that the Padres won Thursday in extra innings, especially since it was on back-to-back HR's by Mike Cameron and Josh Bard in the 11th, but what is even more exciting is the fact that I get to finally see the Padres in person this year.

And what makes this even more exciting is that Jake Peavy's start got moved up and now I will get to see him pitch instead of Justin Germano Friday. Peavy and the Padres should be able to easily dispose of the Nats and Matt Chico, who has been thrashed in the local media here, as well as most of Washington's pitching.

So hopefully we will get our second series sweep of the season this weekend and stay in first place in the NL West.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Kooz comes through

Welcome to San Diego Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Fans finally got to see the reason why Kevin Towers gave up Josh Barfield as Kouzmanoff won Wednesday's game with a two-run home run in the eighth inning. David Wells pitched another beauty, even though the Padres were down by one most of the game. Wells held Chicago to only one run, giving Kouzmanoff the chance to come through in the clutch.

With Kouzmanoff and Mike Cameron coming through in the clutch now, we fans should feel confident that San Diego is ready to defend its NL West crown.