What every Padres fan should know, Part 1

Let me get some housekeeping items out of the way before I start. First, this is not a guide to viewing games at Petco. Truth be told I have never been to Petco Park, I currently live in DC and I haven't seen the Padres in San Diego since 1994. In fact, I think the last game I went to was the first game of the double header in which Tony Gwynn collected his 2,000th hit.

Second, this is not a guide to being a fan in San Diego but is rather the opposite. I have lived among high concentrations of Colorado Rockies fans, Washington Nationals fans and Baltimore Orioles fans since 1994 and as such, your perspective about your team changes when you understand how other fans view your team. That is what I will talk about in this first part so without further delay, here is what fans need to know.

1. The Adrian Gonzalez rule. The player may change but the general rule still applies, and it applies to most teams, most players are not as popular away from home. Take Gonzalez's case - he is the premier power hitter in the lineup, is a hometown boy and put up numbers comparable to a certain Crime Dog when he played in town. But outside of SD, Gonzalez doesn't compare to the league's other 1B's, or does he? Ducksnorts has a pretty good breakdown showing that Gonzalez has put up some top slugging numbers on the road. Which brings me to my second point:
   
2. You will probably never convince opposing fans how good our players are until they see them in person. If you ask people in DC who the next big 3B will be, any Nationals fan is ready to argue that Ryan Zimmerman is a superstar in the making. Ask the same thing on the opposite coast and Kevin Kouzmanoff's name will dominate the conversation. I have seen both play last year in DC and guess what, they both have potential ... and they both have some work to do before they are even in a superstar conversation.
3. Our pitching staff is overrated by us and underrated by almost everyone else. The knocks against our staff by others, Jake Peavy and Chris Young had career years and aren't that good, Greg Maddux hasn't been an ace in 10 years and Mark Prior and Randy Wolf couldn't stay healthy even if they pitched for a team made up of doctors. Well, Peavy is a perennial Cy Young contender, Young is becoming more consistent, Maddux isn't supposed to be a staff ace and Wolf and Prior don't have to carry the load so whatever innings they turn in are worth the (relatively) small investments we have made in them.
4. The fan base actually travels well to some places. Maybe the lack of a team in the area for more than 30 years had something to do with it but for the past two years when I have gone to Nationals games against the Padres, there are just as many (if not more) Padres fans in attendance than Nats fans. We are no Red Sox nation but I know you didn't see any Pirates fans a week later when Pittsburgh came to town (but then again that was the Pirates). I can't speak for many other places but I do remember a decent fan base at Rockies games a few years back as well.

Hopefully I haven't rambled too much but these were the first things that came to mind. So now I turn the floor over to you, what are some other things every Padres fan should know? After I get some responses I will add Part 2, and you can bet there will be some info on helping Dodgers fans face reality.

Spring Training Game 21 Preview: Mariners vs. Padres

At Peoria Sports Complex, 7:05 p.m. PT
Starters: Miguel Batista (Sea) vs. Justin Germano (SD)

Germano and company are back from China just as roster moves are being made and Randy Wolf is getting extra time throwing in minor league games on days off. The competition for starting spots is getting fierce and this game could go a long way in deciding who will fill in for Mark Prior while he makes his way back from injury.

Spring recap No. 15: Brewers 6, Padres 2

I will keep this one short because it took me so long to get to. Chase Headley hit his 3rd HR of the spring, Callix Crabbe also went yard and Randy Wolf gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 4 IP.

Spring Training Game 15 Preview: Brewers at Padres

At Peoria Sports Complex, 7:05 p.m. PT
Starters: Claudio Vargas (Mil) vs. Randy Wolf (SD)

I hear we lost half of our team in China. Did anyone check the Great Wall? Ok we didn't really lose them, they just aren't here. The ones who are here however, will take on the Brew Crew under the "Friday Night Lights."

Alright, I'm getting off this thing now, too many bad puns hurt my head and I know, I brought it on myself.

Spring recap No. 11: Rangers 5, Padres 2

Justin Germano and Shawn Estes both pitched in Monday's late game and Germano seemed to answer the performance Randy Wolf had the night before. Germano pitched 4 innings of scoreless ball, giving up only 2 hits in the process.

Estes didn't have such a good performance though, giving up 4 runs (only 1 earned) in 2 2/3 innings. Estes also gave up 3 hits and walked 1 while striking out no one.

Here are the current spring stats for the four guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation:

• Estes: 4 1/3 IP, 20.77 ERA, 11 hits, 4 BB, 1 K
  
• Germano: 9 1/3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 9 hits, 1 BB, 3 K
  
• Glendon Rusch: 3 2/3 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2 hits, 2 BB, 2 K
  
• Wolf: 4 1/3 16.62 ERA, 11 hits, 3 BB 6 K

Again, these are really small samples and not entirely accurate because of the nature and purpose of spring training but even an ERA over 15 has to be a little troubling. I know Chris Young had an astronomical ERA last spring training but still, those high numbers are not pretty to look at.

Offensively, not much stood out other than Jody Gerut was the only hitter to pick up multiple hits (he went 2-for-2).

Spring Training Game 11 Preview: Rangers at Padres

Texas vs. San Diego
at Peoria Sports Complex, 7:05 p.m. PT

Justin Germano tries to improve his shot at getting a starting spot the day after Randy Wolf posted his best outing this spring. Germano will also start the game against the Dodgers in China. Texas counters with Jamey Wright, who starts in place of Kevin Millwood. According to the Rangers website, Millwood will throw a simulated game instead.

Spring recap No. 10: Padres 12, White Sox 3

Rather than the normal game treatment, I decided to look at what Ron Shandler and his 2008 Baseball Forecaster had to say in regards to Chase Headley, who has been having a solid spring.

One of the things Shandler seems to emphasize is the theory of drafting skills when playing fantasy baseball, and not paying for stats that don't tell the whole story. Looking at stats like contact rate (ct%, AB-K/AB), walk rate (bb%, BB/AB+BB) and power index (PX), Headley definitely has a strong skill set that once he adjusts to the majors, he should be a consistent hitter with good power.

What I like most are Shandler's latest projections for Headley (released at the end of Feb.). He estimates Headley will get 323 AB while posting a .273/.371/.463 line while hitting 10 HR, 24 2B and 48 RBI. Not bad for a guy that may not quite have a home with this year's team but may be playing himself into a role.

I know, I am sounding like I am getting too excited over some spring stats but it just seems like Headley is using the spring to put it all together.

On a side note, Randy Wolf had a better outing Sunday, giving up 2 runs in 3 IP. And while he may have given up 5 hits he also struck out 5 without giving up a walk. After Justin Germano starts tomorrow, I will post an updated chart looking at the candidates for the final rotation spots.

Spring Training Game 10 Preview: White Sox at Padres

Chicago vs. San Diego
at Peoria Sports Complex, 12:05 p.m. PT

It's Randy Wolf's turn once again to try and lock down that No. 4 starting spot as he leads the Padres against Jose Contreras and the White Sox.

While I think a lot of emphasis is being placed on the performance of our pitchers (I am using the term loosely), I think I am now more interested in how Chase Headley performs the rest of the spring. I think he could really force the Padres hand here and make it hard not to start him. I know, I am getting excited over spring stats but it looks like he is really doing a good job of hitting so far. It might be time to get him adjusted to the majors so we can start reaping the rewards.

Spring recap No. 6: A's 15, Padres 4

So it seems the OF may not be as undermanned as we thought huh? Invitee Jody Gerut is now hitting a robust .455 and it seems most of the guys spending time out there are hitting over. 300 this spring.

Randy Wolf had another rough outing, giving up 4 runs in 2 innings while Shawn Estes and Justin Germano felt the need to keep the competition for those last starting spots close by giving up 3 and 4 runs, respectively. But hey, even Heath Bell had an off day as he gave up 2 runs.

This is a little early and the sample is a little small (even for spring training) but here is the breakdown of the competition for the final starting spots:

Wolf - 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Estes - 1.2 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Germano - 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Glendon Rusch - 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 K

Until Wednesday's game, Germano had not given up a hit or a run. He still has the most innings pitched of the 4 likely candidates and could possibly command a spot in the rotation if he can avoid another game like this.

As this competition continues and more innings are pitched, I will continue to update this chart.

Spring Training Game 6 Preview: Padres at A's

San Diego vs. Oakland
at Phoenix Municipal, 12:05 p.m. PT

It's a backend of the rotation bonanza as Randy Wolf gets his second start of the spring while Justin Germano and Shawn Estes are waiting in the wings to get some innings in. Larry DiNardo is scheduled to start for Oakland.

Spring recap No. 2: Padres 11, Mariners 10

Just so we don't get overhyped about what happens during spring training, I am going to keep these recaps short. This is more just to help me get in a groove for when the regular season comes around.

Highlights from Saturday's game? Chase Headley hit a HR and drove in 4 runs, making a case for getting some serious playing time (or least staying up with the big club) this season. Also, in the race to fill the backend of the rotation, Justin Germano went 2 1/3 and didn't give up a hit or a walk and struck out 2 ...

But that leads us to the downside of yesterday. For the second straight day our "starter" only went 2/3 of an inning - this time Randy Wolf gave up 3 runs in that span. Again he and Estes are coming back from injuries and it is only the first couple games of spring training but still, trends make me nervous. Let's just hope this is one of those times I am nervous because I have nothing better to do.

Spring Training Game 2 Preview: Mariners at Padres

Seattle vs. San Diego
Peoria Sports Complex, 12:05 p.m. PT

The back end of the rotation continues its parade to kick of spring training with projected No. 4 starter Randy Wolf scheduled to pitch the first inning with No. 5 starter hopeful Justin Germano slated to throw the next two. Seattle will counter with Felix Hernandez.

It's spring and it's baseball, what more could you want?

Estes returns to the mound

Well it looks like the search for a No. 5 starter is about to get a little more crowded, and a little more fragile, as Shawn Estes makes a long-awaited return to the mound in the Cactus League opener on Friday against Kansas City.

It's been almost two seasons since Estes last pitched for SD and I'm sure that many casual fans are wondering either who this guy is or are probably thought Estes has retired.

Looking at Estes' career stats on baseball-reference.com, he was an All Star in 1997 and owns a career record of 99-90 with a 4.71 ERA in 1,634 1/3 innings - 6 of which have been for the Padres (0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 1 game).

I don't know which is scarier, thinking Estes could be the No. 5 guy until Mark Prior comes back, thinking Prior could be the guy or knowing Glendon Rusch is in the mix. Just thinking about that trio, combined with No. 4 starter Randy Wolf makes my arm start to hurt.

2008 Previews: Starting Pitching

It's no secret by now that the Padres have one of the best, if not the best, 1-2 combos in the majors when it comes to starters. Jake Peavy and Chris Young got off to an amazing start and if it wasn't for a pesky injury after the All Star break, Young may have been a stronger Cy Young candidate.

With Greg Maddux coming back we have a solid enough No. 3 starter that he should guarantee us at least 10 wins once again, despite the fact that Maddux is clearly not the pitcher he was. However, his years of experience have made it possible for him to remain effective.

Any fan worth his weight knows the biggest question for the Padres is who will fill the last two spots in the rotation. Low budget signings Randy Wolf and Mark Prior should be adequate to fill the roles if they can remain healthy, but that's the $64,000 question this season.

Both Wolf and Prior tend to be fly ball pitchers and their home run to fly ball ratios should see the most improvement because of their new surroundings. Should the need arise, both Justin Germano (last year's No. 5 starter) and Clay Hensley headline a list of youngsters who will be itching for another chance to earn a full-time rotation gig.

It remains to be seen how effective Germano really can be - is he more of the pitcher we saw in the first half (only 1 loss), or is he closer to the guy we saw struggle in the second half? A similar questions could be asked of Hensley, but he too is also trying to battle back from injury.

Regardless of who fills the last two spots, someone is going to have to step up in a big way.

Early predictions for the NL West

First things first: I apologize this did not get up on Monday as promised. As most of you probably know, life has a funny way of shifting priorities. But enough excuses.

As Jan. winds down, it's time for anyone and everyone to start making predictions. So starting today, here are my breakdowns of the NL West and the Padres. Today's prediction is the order in which the teams will finish in the division with a short reason why. (Disclaimer: Since it is Jan., I reserve the right to change my predictions based on potential injuries during Spring Training. You didn't seriously think I would allow myself to be held completely to these did you?)

1. Diamondbacks: It would be easy to go with the homer pick here but AZ really surprised everyone last year, especially those who said '08 would be their year. Well, it's now '08 and they have added Dan Haren to the rotation. This team will be tough to beat again and probably has the best shot at winning the division.

2. Padres: You didn't think I'd pick them to finish any lower did you? In midseason they were the best team in the NL but they faded fast and eventually lost game 163 to Colorado. Mark Prior and Randy Wolf are interesting additions to the rotation and along with Jim Edmonds and Tadahito Iguchi this team has made some changes in hopes of playing a little longer in '08. These moves should work.

3. Rockies: They needed to win 21 of their last 22 to make the playoffs and then swept through the NL before being swept out by the Red Sox. Kip Wells is not the answer to replace the "Dragon Slayer" Josh Fogg though and no one will be caught off guard this time. However, Matt Holliday is really good, even if he never touched the plate.

4. Dodgers: Call this a hater pick if you want but Joe Torre does not equal playoffs for the boys in blue. This team still has a lot of work to do and will need more than one year for Torre to work his magic.

5. Giants: This organization is currently a mess and we will definitely need a scorecard to tell who the players are, but they are finally escaping the loooooong shadow of Barry Bonds. But they are still a couple of years away from actually turning this thing around and they should safely be entrenched in the basement by the end of April.

There you have it. Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments.

Did the Padres add enough this offseason?

Looking at the guys Kevin Towers brought in to help get this team back to the playoffs in 2008, I have two questions for readers:

1. Did Towers add enough to get this team over the hump (barring injury setbacks)?

2. Of the players that changed teams or were available this offseason, who would you have liked to seen retained or added to the roster (keeping in mind that A Rod or Johan Santana had no shot of coming here in the first place)?

My answers? For No. 1 I think that everything has to go right in order for it to work. Is that a generic answer? You bet. Is it meaningless? Not in the least. To elaborate, the Padres have talent and when guys like Randy Wolf and Mark Prior are healthy, they can be No. 2 starters. However, the reason they were available was because when was the last time either of these guys was a No. 2 starter? You get my point.

For No. 2, I would have liked to see Geoff Blum come back just because of his versatility on defense but other than him, I would have liked to see SD be able to retain Milton Bradley. At the very least he would have kept reporters and bloggers busy throughout the year. It would also be cool if we could sign a guy like Bartolo Colon, who is still out on the market. Granted, this violates my price range rule but between his injury-plagued '07, the horrible stats when he did pitch and the fact that he's 35 at the end of May, this has KT Bargain written all over it.

Now that you've heard my view, let me know what you think? Who do you think would have fit in well in SD? Get posting.

Happy 2008

It's a new year and hopefully a rejuvenation of this blog. In the tradition of making resolutions, my resolution is to blog more frequently, both during the season and off-season. Now for some catching up.

1. Looking for more blogs about the San Diego Padres? Check out padreblogs.com. The site is owned by Geoff Young of Ducksnorts, and is a list of links of blogs on the Padres.

2. Mark Prior is now a Padre. When he is healthy, Prior is a talented pitcher. However, it's been a while since he wax healthy. As the guys over at Gaslamp Ball have been saying, if Prior and Randy Wolf stay healthy, this could be the year we get back to the World Series but on the other side of things, their arms could fall off in the middle of an inning too.

Regardless of how last year ended, the one thing 2008 should bring is plenty of excitement. It seems Kevin Towers has done a good job of shopping this offseason to fill needs with capable players. Now we just need to spend the next 10 months doing whatever we can to ward away injuries. Does anyone have any bug spray?

Edmonds returns to So Cal

So we finally got the answer to our CF problems - 37-year-old Jim Edmonds.

Huh, I think I liked this move five years ago but now I am not so sure. He hasn't played more than 117 games in either of the last two seasons and we saw what happened when Mike Cameron missed games last year.

The part of this deal that I like is that we have a proven CF (when he's healthy) and all we gave up was a 3B who was probably never going to make the big club, a deal I would make every time. But it has to be understood that this move is only a stop gap solution and hopefully Edmonds doesn't fall off this year like Vinny Castilla did when he was supposed to solve the problems at third for a season.

I don't expect Edmonds to be playing much longer but if he can pull out one final solid season (maybe like 2005 when he hit .263/.385/.533 with 29 homers and 89 RBIs), then this could be the makings of a good season for the Pads.

Plus with the additions of Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi, the Padres seem to be quietly building a contender for 2008. While it may be fun to see the flashy signings of players like A-Rod, what most people often forgot is that it's the quiet kid in the corner of the room that is usually the most trouble. Hopefully that is us.

I think that by this point, most of us are willing to trust Kevin Towers and the moves he makes but you still have to wonder how much an old CF who has put his body through the wringer over the years with his amazing defensive plays has left to give his new team.